The Central Asian Strategic Environment

Abstract

The contemporary Central Asian strategic environment is a mix of tangibles like great power competition, natural resources, structural frameworks, infrastructure, trade, commerce, intelligence operations, assassinations, terrorism, arms race and domestic political instability. And the next door is Afghanistan. Central Asia is now getting integrated in world trade, which it once dominated. Historically, the origin of the Central Asian domination of the world trade through military power can be traced back in the times gone by to the rise of Mongol Empire. The centre of gravity of Mongol Empire was Central Asia and both the trade and the military power was land-based. The expanse of the Mongol Empire stretched from the Yellow Sea in the east to the Mediterranean in the west. This domination continued and persisted for more than a century. And at the heart of it was the superior Mongol horsemanship and an effective military tactics i.e., the Mongol Blitzkrieg. However, this centre of mass i.e., of the power and trade shifted from Central Asia to China in the east and Russia in the northwest from 15^thcentury onwards; unleashing the decline of the Mongol Empire. The end result was the break-up of the empire into bickering Khanates vying for power and influence at the cost of each other. Nevertheless, Central Asia re-emerged on the world political scene in 19^th century as a result of the Great Game between the then British Indian Empire and the expanding Czarist Russian Empire. The region became part of Russian Empire as a result of 1907 Anglo-Russian agreement that was followed by the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia and the communist takeover of Central Asia. The Sovietization of Central Asia ended with the disintegration of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991. The communist turned nationalist transition was generally peaceful, except for Tajikistan, where Islamists were first contained and then integrated. Still, the Central Asian Republics (CARs) are faced with the challenges of economic and industrial development, dependence on the export of oil, gas, and raw materials as opposed to the industrial products, as also the disadvantage of being a land-locked region. Central Asia is surrounded by great and regional powers pushing the leadership into balancing acts in an uncertain strategic environment. Moreover, Central Asia is a geo-strategic region that is also the centre of gravity of great and regional power competition e.g., the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as opposed to the American Silk Road.